On 20 April, Clare Hall Research Fellow Dr Nikolai Kazantsev contributed to the response to the House of Lords Committee on National Resilience 2026 call for evidence for its inquiry into national and local preparedness and resilience. The evidence was submitted by the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER).

The inquiry, launched by the House of Lords National Resilience Committee, seeks to examine the UK’s readiness to respond to major risks and emergencies, including the structures, resources and strategies required to strengthen resilience at both national and local levels.

Dr Kazantsev’s evidence to the National Resilience Committee focuses on national production capability as a critical but under‑developed pillar of UK preparedness and resilience, especially for high‑impact risks such as pandemics. He argues that the UK currently pays too little attention to the ability to rapidly expand and reconfigure domestic manufacturing and related health services along supply chains once a large‑scale threat emerges and stockpiles or commercial contracts are no longer sufficient.

National production capability is defined as the capacity to scale manufacturing of emergency products (e.g. PPE, test kits, ventilators) and to dynamically match that output to changing demand levels. Using COVID‑19 as a case study, Dr Kazantsev shows how constraints in producing components for masks, gowns, and gloves led to severe delays in PPE availability, despite the UK’s sizeable industrial base.

He highlights that evidence derived from system dynamics modelling of healthcare system shows preparedness of emergency product designs and visibility into their supply chain base could have reduced adverse impacts of virus transmission into society.

The developed methodology for national resilience includes: 

• certification of several emergency product designs optimised for rapid scale‑up and local sourcing
• mapping and periodically updating manufacturing options for components, assembly and delivery
• developing AI‑enabled tools to triage production options in real time

The opportunity to summarise this evidence was provided by participation in the Academic Writing Marathon organised by Dr Valeria Ramirez, Clare Hall Associate and Affiliated Postdoctoral Members Liaison, as part of Clare Hall’s 60th Anniversary activities.

The full text of the submission will be made publicly available once the inquiry publishes evidence on its website. Further details about the call for evidence can be found via the UK Parliament website: https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/832/national-resilience-committee/news/212523/call-for-evidence-launched-into-national-preparedness-and-resilience/